News, updated 8 October 2026
CPI and gold: how inflation data moves XAUUSD
How the US CPI inflation report moves gold, when it's released, why the reaction can seem backwards, and how to trade around it.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures US inflation. It’s one of the two or three biggest scheduled events for gold each month.
The reaction that seems backwards
You might expect higher inflation to push gold up. On the release day it usually does the opposite:
- CPI above forecast: the Fed is more likely to keep rates high or raise them. Yields and the dollar rise, and gold usually falls.
- CPI below forecast: rate cuts look closer. Yields and the dollar fall, and gold usually rises.
What matters is the surprise against the forecast, not whether inflation is high. Traders focus on core CPI (excluding food and energy), month on month.
Timing
CPI comes out monthly at 8:30am New York time. Gold can move $15 to $40 in the first minutes, and spreads widen.
How traders handle CPI
- Know it’s coming. Check the economic calendar every Monday.
- Don’t open fresh trades in the last few minutes before. You’re betting on a number.
- Protect open trades: take partial profit or move stops to entry beforehand, or accept that the stop may slip.
- Let the first move settle. The initial spike often reverses within 15 to 30 minutes, and cleaner trades usually come after.
Related: NFP and gold, FOMC and gold.